Swine Flu Update #2


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expert perspective telescopeExpert Perspective by Grahall’s Robert Cirkiel.

The CDC reports a growing number of Swine Flu cases:
April 27:        20
May 4:      1,000
May 11:    2,600
May 18:    5,100


Let’s start with the bad news. The number is doubling or more each week.   This suggests that the disease has neither run its course nor dissipated.  If it continues to double there would be 1.3 million US cases just 8 weeks from now.  This is not an outlandish result.  Think of how many people you’re in contact with each week and if you were a carrier, how reasonable an outcome it would be if just one of those people came down with it?

However, the good news is that the flu has not become dangerously more virulent yet.  Also, the timing has been good in that summer is not far off and there is a possibility that the incidence will taper off.

Ideally, by the time cold weather hits later this fall it could
(1) dissipate,
(2) fail to increase in virulence, and/or
(3) vaccines could be widely available.
Read more on this subject from Robert Cirkiel.
Email Robert Cirkiel at robert.cirkiel@grahall.com

Read more on this subject from Robert Cirkiel.


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