A recent news story by Mike Stobby, AP Medical Writer “Swine flu could hit up to 40 percent in US” caught my attention. He writes: ”In a disturbing new projection, health officials say up to 40 percent of Americans could get swine flu this year and next and several hundred thousand could die without a successful vaccine campaign and other measures.”
I have been blogging on the subject of the H1N1 flue for several weeks now (find link to prior blogs below) and I agree that this could become pretty bad. I’m a “prediction guy” so my focus is on the trends and there are a few indicators I don’t like. The fact that it’s summertime and there’s no abatement in the number of new cases is the most concerning. Viruses mutate continuously and whether this one turns into a mass murderer or not is anyone’s guess. Tamiflu has already been ineffective in a number of instances so if everyone with the flu takes Tamiflu, the resistent strain will eventually prevail and perhaps become the virulent strain. I can just imagine how five years from now TV talking heads with 20/20 hindsight will be expousing about how giving everyone Tamiflu was the turning point in the losing battle against H1N1. Stay tuned for more on this subject.
Email Robert Cirkiel at firstname.lastname@example.org