A recent news story by Mike Stobby, AP Medical Writer “Swine flu could hit up to 40 percent in US” caught my attention. He writes: ”In a disturbing new projection, health officials say up to 40 percent of Americans could get swine flu this year and next and several hundred thousand could die without a successful vaccine campaign and other measures.”
I have been blogging on the subject of the H1N1 flue for several weeks now (find link to prior blogs below) and I agree that this could become pretty bad. I’m a “prediction guy” so my focus is on the trends and there are a few indicators I don’t like. The fact that it’s summertime and there’s no abatement in the number of new cases is the most concerning. Viruses mutate continuously and whether this one turns into a mass murderer or not is anyone’s guess. Tamiflu has already been ineffective in a number of instances so if everyone with the flu takes Tamiflu, the resistent strain will eventually prevail and perhaps become the virulent strain. I can just imagine how five years from now TV talking heads with 20/20 hindsight will be expousing about how giving everyone Tamiflu was the turning point in the losing battle against H1N1. Stay tuned for more on this subject.
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